PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 10%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$33.3K
Liquidity
$677.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
11.1%
Wide spread7d Change
-1.0%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Nov 3, 25, 11:52 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
5mo
92.5%
7.5%
Community forecast1,938 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
5mo
91.7%
8.3%
Community forecast93 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$10.7k89.0%POLYMARKETNozhaoyk2d ago
POLYMARKETNozhaoyk2d ago$1.0k8.0%POLYMARKETYesBlueOrchid16d ago
POLYMARKETYesBlueOrchid16d ago$9.3k93.0%POLYMARKETNoLlalalala19d ago
POLYMARKETNoLlalalala19d ago$1.8k91.0%POLYMARKETNoBamseOgKylling25d ago
POLYMARKETNoBamseOgKylling25d ago$1.3k91.0%POLYMARKETNopo7125d ago
POLYMARKETNopo7125d ago$1.0k10.0%POLYMARKETYestrashpilot26d ago
POLYMARKETYestrashpilot26d ago$2.0k91.0%POLYMARKETNoendlesssss26d ago
POLYMARKETNoendlesssss26d agoVolume trend
$33.3kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.