PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 10%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$33.1K
Liquidity
$679.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
11.1%
Wide spread7d Change
-1.0%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Nov 3, 25, 11:52 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
5mo
92.5%
7.5%
Community forecast1,938 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
5mo
91.7%
8.3%
Community forecast93 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$10.7k89.0%POLYMARKETNozhaoyk2d ago
POLYMARKETNozhaoyk2d ago$1.0k8.0%POLYMARKETYesBlueOrchid16d ago
POLYMARKETYesBlueOrchid16d ago$9.3k93.0%POLYMARKETNoLlalalala19d ago
POLYMARKETNoLlalalala19d ago$1.8k91.0%POLYMARKETNoBamseOgKylling25d ago
POLYMARKETNoBamseOgKylling25d ago$1.3k91.0%POLYMARKETNopo7125d ago
POLYMARKETNopo7125d ago$1.0k10.0%POLYMARKETYestrashpilot26d ago
POLYMARKETYestrashpilot26d ago$2.0k91.0%POLYMARKETNoendlesssss26d ago
POLYMARKETNoendlesssss26d agoVolume trend
$33.1kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
$139.6KAugust 31: 59%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$22.6KYes: 28%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
$21.3KDecember 31: 13%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
$55.7Yes: 10.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
$50Yes: 21.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIf Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
$50Yes: 49.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.