PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93.1%
Market quality
88 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$33.5K
Liquidity
$580.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
6
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Nov 3, 25, 11:52 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadWill the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
- Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
