Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
1,960
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 31, 25, 12:31 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
Manifold MarketsWill USA change Iran regime
Manifold MarketsIf Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketWill the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
- This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it.
- Qualifying scenarios may include:
- Military coup
- Voluntary abdication of power
- Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran's regime fall in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
- Where else is Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless, Manifold Markets, Polymarket.