If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChina3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85.5%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 10:17 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 10:17 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026)
Manifold MarketsWill Iran's regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessRules
Professor Jiang Xueqin has the Predictive History channel on YouTube:
- Geo-Strategy END: Psychohistory (The Science of Imagining the Future)
- I've extracted the most resolvable statements from this YouTube video:
- If the West Is Collapsing, What Comes Next in 2026? - Prof. Jiang Xueqin
- The questions will resolve YES if I see reports of this in relatively respectable media.
- I know this is a fuzzy resolution, but I'll do my best.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it? resolve?
- If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Professor Jiang Xueqin has the Predictive History channel on YouTube: