In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAugust 2026 37.2%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 6:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES for any month in which there are at least three consecutive calendar days (using Israel Standard Time, IST) where air raid sirens or red alerts are triggered in any part of Israel by missiles or drones launched directly from Iranian territory.
- Otherwise, those months will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- "Sirens" refers to official alerts (Tzeva Adom / Red Alert) or air raid sirens issued by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Command (Pikud HaOref).
- "Caused by Iranian missiles" requires that the projectiles (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or explosive UAVs/drones) were launched directly from Iranian soil.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles??
- Manifold Markets prices August 2026 at 37% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles? resolve?
- In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is In which month(s) will there be at least 3 consecutive days with sirens in Israel caused by Iranian missiles? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria