PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 98%
No 98%Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$51.2K
Liquidity
$661.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
73
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Jul 24, 25, 11:37 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 2%.
CoinRithm reference 2% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread