PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 4%
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$85K
Liquidity
$794.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.8% / 3.9%
Spread
2.6%
Tight spread7d Change
+0.2%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 24, 25, 11:37 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes4%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Limitless
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
5mo
4.5%
95.6%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$8.5K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESS
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
5mo
9.1%
90.9%
Community forecast50 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$7.2k96.2%NoElectricSamurai2d ago
$1.4k96.1%NoDoupei2d ago
$1.0k96.3%No0x122c…fbed11d ago
Volume trend
$85.0kJul 211d of dataJul 12
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.