PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%+0.1pt
Market quality
87 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8K
Liquidity
$437.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.9% / 4.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
73
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 24, 25, 11:37 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 4%.
CoinRithm reference 4% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.2pt69%
- October 31-13.0pt46%
- September 30-12.5pt24%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $795.3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+3.5pt76.8%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt17.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.2pt5%
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt86.1%
- Yes+1.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $62.6M
- 24h Vol
- $310.1K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt17%
- October 3110%
- September 306%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22100%
- August 25100%
- August 31+1.1pt97%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt28%
- October 31-3.0pt14%
- August 31-1.7pt2%
+3 more outcomes
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 96% as of August 28, 2026.
- When does Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Limitless.