Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 21, 26, 8:37 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
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PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2027.
- An invasion is defined as a large-scale, sustained military operation involving amphibious assault, airborne operations, or direct military occupation of Taiwan's territory.
- The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) and official statements from Taiwan's government or the U.S. State Department.
- Isolated military incidents, exercises, blockades, or cyber operations do not constitute an invasion.
- Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to accelerate its timeline for developing invasion capabilities from 2035 to 2027.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan before 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 resolve?
- Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria