Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.8%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 21, 26, 8:37 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
LimitlessWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by year's end?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2027.
- An invasion is defined as a large-scale, sustained military operation involving amphibious assault, airborne operations, or direct military occupation of Taiwan's territory.
- The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) and official statements from Taiwan's government or the U.S. State Department.
- Isolated military incidents, exercises, blockades, or cyber operations do not constitute an invasion.
- Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to accelerate its timeline for developing invasion capabilities from 2035 to 2027.