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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. China
  3. Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

One-OffChina1y
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 13%
Market quality

56 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$15.4

Liquidity

$91K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

12.0% / 13.0%

Spread

8.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Apr 1, 26, 4:22 PMJun 30, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes13%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
  • The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
  • The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.