PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 92.1%-1.0pt
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$96.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Apr 1, 26, 4:20 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
LimitlessWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 92% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? resolve?
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.