PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 12%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$220.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
9.1%
Wide spread7d Change
+4.0%
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Mar 17, 26, 11:32 PMDec 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes12%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 89% | — | $2.5K | $220.5K | 9 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets75% match · verified | — | 85% | — | — | — | 2 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
1y
85.2%
14.8%
Community forecast583 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.4k91.0%POLYMARKETNoCloudy-Naming7d ago
POLYMARKETNoCloudy-Naming7d ago$33.9k91.8%POLYMARKETNosmallpig7d ago
POLYMARKETNosmallpig7d ago$6.1k87.3%POLYMARKETNosmallpig24d ago
POLYMARKETNosmallpig24d agoVolume trend
$2.5kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.