PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 89.1%
Market quality
81 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$248.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 11.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Mar 17, 26, 11:32 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"
Manifold MarketsWill China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-8.5pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $424.6K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $286K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.8%
- September 3011.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 89% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? resolve?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.