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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. China
  3. Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

One-OffChina1y
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 16%
Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$2.3K

Liquidity

$135.1K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

15.0% / 16.0%

Spread

6.7%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Mar 17, 26, 11:33 PMDec 31, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes16%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
  • The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
  • The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.