LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCLimited verified dataCurrent implied probabilityYes 4.4%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jan 20, 26, 6:09 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes4%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
0.2%5mo
4%
96%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$38.3M
24h Vol$48.4K
POLYMARKET
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
5mo
9.1%
90.9%
Community forecast50 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$0.00Jul 67d of dataJul 12
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.