LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97.7%
No 97.7%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 20, 26, 6:09 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by year's end?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 2%.
CoinRithm reference 2% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread