LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 96%
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jan 20, 26, 6:09 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 4%.
CoinRithm reference 4% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??
- Limitless prices No at 96% as of August 28, 2026.
- When does Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? settled?
- Limitless settles this market as follows: <p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Polymarket.
