Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 11, 2026, 7:06 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 9.1%
Forecasters
50
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 days ago
StaleFeb 3, 26, 7:42 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes9%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
0.2%5mo
4%
96%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$38.4M
24h Vol$85K
POLYMARKET
Also available on Limitless
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
5mo
4.5%
95.6%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$8.5K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.