Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 10:51 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan or its government by December 31, 2026.
- China considers Taiwan part of its territory, and Xi Jinping has emphasised reunification as a core objective, while Taiwan operates as a self-governing democracy with its own government and military. .
