Current implied probability
Alibaba 31.6%+2.0ptLeader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Alibaba 31.6%+2.0ptMarket quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$261
Liquidity
$13.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+27.3 pts
Market data
Updated 38 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 12:07 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.