Current implied probability
Alibaba 33%+2.0ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Alibaba 33%+2.0ptMarket quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 2:01 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.