Current implied probability
Alibaba 22.1%+1.5ptLeader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Alibaba 22.1%+1.5ptMarket quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$32.1
Liquidity
$2.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+10.0 pts
Market data
Updated 38 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 12:13 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of December?
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PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of October 5th
KalshiTop Chinese AI Company week of September 28th
KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.