When will China invade Taiwan
Geopolitics
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Before 2050 50.6%Leader of 9 outcomes
Before 2050 50.6%Forecasters
162
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingFeb 27, 24, 2:02 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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LimitlessRules
Must be an attempt at invading the main island.
- A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count.
- It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this).
- I made a single choice market which some may prefer.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan-qIyhnCZ5UE)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar?play=true)