PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 5%
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$23.2K
Liquidity
$212.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.7% / 4.8%
Spread
2.1%
Tight spread7d Change
-0.2%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 3, 25, 8:37 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 95% | — | $23.2K | $212.5K | 3 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 78% | — | — | — | 41 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027?
1y
77.6%
22.4%
Community forecast37 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.8k95.1%POLYMARKETNoLolololol14h ago
POLYMARKETNoLolololol14h ago$3.7k95.0%POLYMARKETNoarchaic7d ago
POLYMARKETNoarchaic7d ago$1.4k95.0%POLYMARKETNoshanshan87d ago
POLYMARKETNoshanshan87d ago$1.1k94.8%POLYMARKETNoLolololol14d ago
POLYMARKETNoLolololol14d ago$9.5k95.2%POLYMARKETNomomo51318d ago
POLYMARKETNomomo51318d ago$4.8k95.0%POLYMARKETNoselador21d ago
POLYMARKETNoselador21d ago$12.8k94.8%POLYMARKETNoallenzzz23d ago
POLYMARKETNoallenzzz23d ago$5.6k93.7%POLYMARKETNoallenzzz25d ago
POLYMARKETNoallenzzz25d agoVolume trend
$23.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.