US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
16.0% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffAIChina5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 10%-0.2%
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.5K
Liquidity
$9.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 11.0%
Spread
37.5%
Wide spread7d Change
+3.0%
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 3, 26, 9:49 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Volume trend
$10.5kJul 324d of dataJul 26
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This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
- A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US.
- Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target.
- An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US).
- A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance).