US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
0.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffAI1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 91%
No 91%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.4K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$4.5K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
1
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 3, 26, 9:51 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · No
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
- A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US.
- Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target.
- An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US).
- A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 9%.
CoinRithm reference 9% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
