US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
3.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffAI5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 82.2%+0.0pt
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$126.2
Liquidity
$3.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 3, 26, 9:51 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes18%
Volume trend
$126Jul 324d of dataJul 27
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This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
- A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US.
- Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target.
- An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US).
- A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance).