Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
0.1 pts (24h)EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Shutdown & Democratic 86%+0.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$48.2
Liquidity
$83K
High liquiditySpread
0.8 pt
Tight spreadComments
12
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Dec 9, 25, 6:47 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
On which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsUS government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
KalshiWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown by October 1?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
- The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
- Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
- The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
- Which party will win the House in 2026?