PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityShutdown & Democratic 86%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.2
Liquidity
$55.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 13.7%
Spread
5.4%
Moderate spread7d Change
-1.4%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Dec 9, 25, 6:47 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Shutdown & Democratic86%
Volume trend
$4Jul 222d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
- The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
- Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S.
- Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
- The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).