Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.5%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleMay 13, 26, 8:16 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold Markets(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
KalshiUS government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown by October 1?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any part of the United States federal government shuts down due to a lapse in appropriations at any point before 12:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "shutdown" is defined as a formal cessation of non-essential government operations caused by the failure of Congress to pass, and the President to sign, necessary appropriations legislation (continuing resolutions or full-year budgets).
- Official confirmation from sources such as the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations or major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, Bloomberg) confirming that federal agencies have initiated shutdown procedures will be used to resolve the market.
- If a shutdown occurs but is resolved within the same day without a significant disruption to non-essential services, the market will still resolve YES if an official lapse in appropriations was acknowledged by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Total Vol
- $366K
- 24h Vol
- $12.7K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.4K
- 24h Vol
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US recession by end of 2026?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027? resolve?
- Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria