Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:04 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Feb 1 2026 100%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
49
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 24, 26, 10:46 PM UTCNov 29, 26, 10:43 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
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KalshiWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWhat's true about US government shutdown? [ADD ANSWERS/PROP BETS]
Manifold MarketsRules
If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.
- Resolution will be based on whether a shutdown notice is visible on the OPM (Office of Personnel Management) site for at least part of a day.
- If a notice is visible on the OPM site for any portion of a given date, that date will resolve YES.
- Otherwise it will resolve NO.
- A shut down end will be determined by the date on which the funding package required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted.
- The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.