Current community forecast
Feb 1 2026 100%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
49
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-40.1 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 24, 26, 10:46 PMNov 29, 26, 10:43 PM
Trends
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
Rules
If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.
- Resolution will be based on whether a shutdown notice is visible on the OPM (Office of Personnel Management) site for at least part of a day.
- If a notice is visible on the OPM site for any portion of a given date, that date will resolve YES.
- Otherwise it will resolve NO.
- A shut down end will be determined by the date on which the funding package required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted.
- The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio17%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $697.5M
- 24h Vol
- $3.3M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.7pt13%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt53.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt42.7%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt1.9%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.5pt36.8%
- Édouard Philippe29.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom12.9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $210.3M
- 24h Vol
- $428.4K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for On which dates will the US government be shutdown??
- Manifold Markets prices Feb 1 2026 at 100% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does On which dates will the US government be shutdown? resolve?
- On which dates will the US government be shutdown? is scheduled to resolve on November 29, 2026.
- How is On which dates will the US government be shutdown? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.