(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?
EconomyOne-OffUS PoliticsPolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastShutdown 2 46.3%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 27, 26, 8:07 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market uses a nonstandard mechanism that multiplies the odds of the underlying event by 5x.
- Please read the full description before trading.
- For fairness, and because of the nonstandard mechanism, I will not trade on any market in this Set.
- The reason I made this mechanism is because I noticed that due to the multiplier mechanism other multiplied odds markets tend to have their results N/A, which reverts all trades on the market, this means there is no reward for trading information even if the market does resolve correctly.
- This way all 5 of the markets should always have the same odds, and for one of them trades on it will not revert.
- There is no mechanism to force trading on all 5 markets, which means they can (but shouldn't) separate.
