KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 3.7% 92%-1.0%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$168
Liquidity
$4.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
90.0% / 96.0%
Spread
6.7%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 9, 26, 6:40 PMNov 6, 26, 1:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 3.7%92%
Volume trend
$168Jul 212d of dataJul 25
Related Markets
Unemployment in July
$2.5KAbove 4.3%: 17%KALSHI
KALSHIUnemployment in August
$298Above 4.2%: 60%KALSHI
KALSHIUnemployment in November
$126Above 4.2%: 61%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?
$60Yes: 50%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?
$0Yes: 9%POLYMARKET
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How many jobs added in July?
$050k – 100k: 33%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Rules
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.