KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAbove 3.7% 98%-1.0%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$6.2
Liquidity
$19.4
Low liquidityBid / Ask
98.0% / 99.0%
Spread
1.0%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jun 9, 26, 6:40 PMNov 6, 26, 1:29 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Above 3.7%98%
Related Markets
Unemployment in June
$49.9Above 4.1%: 85%KALSHI
KALSHIUnemployment in July
$4.5Above 4.4%: 15%KALSHI
KALSHIUnemployment in November
$0.9Above 4.3%: 54%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?
$65Yes: 46.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
How many jobs added in June?
$0<0: 43%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US recession by end of 2026?
$3.8KYes: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Rules
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.