PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
2.0-2.5% 28.4%+1.5ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$4.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-16.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 31, 26, 11:43 PMOct 30, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
- Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market.
- Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Open markets
Economy
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes-1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $451K
- 24h Vol
- $66K
KALSHIUnemployment in August
- Above 3.8%99%
- Above 3.7%98%
- Above 3.9%+1.0pt96%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $421.7K
- 24h Vol
- $55.2K
KALSHIJobs numbers in Aug 2026?
- Above -100,00095%
- Above -75,000+2.0pt95%
- Above -50,000+1.0pt90%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $134.2K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $358.9K
- 24h Vol
- $20.2K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No68%
- Yes+2.0pt32%
- Total Vol
- $273K
- 24h Vol
- $4.9K
POLYMARKETAugust Unemployment Rate
- 4.1%32.1%
- 4.2%+1.0pt32.1%
- 4.0%+5.5pt17.9%
+6 more outcomes
- ISM Services PMI - August 2026
- CPI in August
- Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?
- How many jobs added in August?
- Recession this year?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- Recession this year?
- South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026
- GDP growth in 2026
- US economic state at the end of 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026??
- Polymarket prices 2.0-2.5% at 28% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026? resolve?
- Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 30, 2026.
- How is Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.