Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026?
EconomyOne-OffMacro & Economy3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 29, 25, 7:25 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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ForecastExUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
KalshiRules
Will resolve with: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250228/dq250228a-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=3278-1&indgeo=0
- Includes Q4 2026, so may need to resolve a bit later if the data isn't out yet.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
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- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
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- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will resolve with: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250228/dq250228a-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=3278-1&indgeo=0