KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability2.1% to 2.5% 24%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$0.6
Liquidity
$179.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
23.9% / 26.0%
Spread
8.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 3:00 PMFeb 28, 27, 1:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
2.1% to 2.5%24%
Volume trend
$0.63Jul 224d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Rules
If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is below 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026.
- The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027.
- Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
- All stated bounds are inclusive.
- For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.