KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probability1.6% to 2.0% 26%+0.1%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0.2
Liquidity
$1.6K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
26.1% / 27.0%
Spread
3.5%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jan 14, 26, 3:00 PMFeb 28, 27, 1:29 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
1.6% to 2.0%26%
Also available on Polymarket
GDP growth in 2026
0.8%7mo
-5.0%43%
-0.1%19%
-1.0%17%
+3 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$30K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is below 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026.
- The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027.
- Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
- All stated bounds are inclusive.
- For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Rules
If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is below 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026.
- The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027.
- Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
- All stated bounds are inclusive.
- For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.