KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
2.1% to 2.5% 10%-10.0ptLeader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.6
Liquidity
$7.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 12:00 AM UTCFeb 28, 33, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US real GDP growth in 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2033?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2034?
KalshiWho will win the presidency in 2028 and will average annual Real GDP growth be MORE or LESS than 2.8% during their term?
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in 2027?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2028?
KalshiRules
If the United States real GDP growth in 2032 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2032.
- The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2032 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2032 GDP in early 2033.
- Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
- If the United States real GDP growth in 2032 is between 0.1% to 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the United States real GDP growth in 2032 is between 0.6% to 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
EconomyKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt98%
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $306.6K
- 24h Vol
- $86.7K
KALSHIUnemployment in September
- Above 3.8%+1.0pt98%
- Above 3.7%97%
- Above 3.9%92%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $107.2K
- 24h Vol
- $57.2K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $181.3K
- 24h Vol
- $39.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $12.9K
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+1.0pt90.1%
- Yes-1.0pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $11.9K
KALSHIJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Above -25,00094%
- Above 089%
- Above 10,000+2.0pt85%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.5K
- 24h Vol
- $11.5K
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI core in October
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- CPI core in September
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US Nominal GDP in 2026
- September 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US real GDP growth in 2032??
- Kalshi prices 2.1% to 2.5% at 10% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does US real GDP growth in 2032? resolve?
- US real GDP growth in 2032? is scheduled to resolve on February 28, 2033.
- How is US real GDP growth in 2032? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States real GDP growth in 2032 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.