KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAbove 4.2% 56%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0.6
Liquidity
$2.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
56.0% / 66.0%
Spread
17.9%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jun 6, 26, 5:55 PMOct 2, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
0%
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Selected outcome
Above 4.2%56%
Related Markets
Unemployment in June
$49.9Above 4.1%: 85%KALSHI
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$4.5Above 4.4%: 15%KALSHI
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Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?
$65Yes: 46.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
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How many jobs added in June?
$050k – 100k: 44%
POLYMARKET
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US recession by end of 2026?
$3.7KYes: 20%POLYMARKET
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Rules
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.