KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 2.7% 99%+1.0ptLeader of 26 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$50.7K
Liquidity
$499.9K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jun 9, 26, 10:15 PM UTCSep 11, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending August 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending August 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending August 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending August 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.9% in the twelve months ending August 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.9K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $21.3K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHICPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Exactly 3.4%-4.0pt43%
- Exactly 3.3%+1.0pt31%
- Exactly 3.5%+3.0pt14%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)?
- Kalshi prices Above 2.7% at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) resolve?
- Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) is scheduled to resolve on September 11, 2026.
- How is Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending August 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.