KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 334.300 95%Leader of 25 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.6K
Liquidity
$44.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Aug 16, 26, 7:00 PMSep 11, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for August 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:BLS - CPI-U
- The Underlying is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index News Release Table 1 for August 2026.
- Specifically, the value used will be the “All items” value under the “Unadjusted indexes” column for August 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the first value published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the scheduled Consumer Price Index release for August 2026.
- Subsequent revisions will not affect the market.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change-4.0pt68.3%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt30.7%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43M
- 24h Vol
- $2.9M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+2.0pt51.5%
- No-2.0pt48.5%
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
- 24h Vol
- $75.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124.3K
- 24h Vol
- $15.8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting41%
- September Meeting+3.5pt30%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI core in October
- Above 0.1%98%
- Above 0.2%98%
- Above 0.0%66%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
KALSHIHow high will inflation get this year?
- At least 4.5%-4.7pt25%
- At least 5.5%-5.0pt17%
- At least 5.0%-8.2pt13%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $434.1K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CPI-U index in August?
- Kalshi prices Above 334.300 at 95% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does CPI-U index in August resolve?
- CPI-U index in August is scheduled to resolve on September 11, 2026.
- How is CPI-U index in August settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for August 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.