PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
3.3% 77.5%-1.0ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$12.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+28.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 11:43 PMAug 26, 26, 1:30 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change-4.0pt68.3%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt30.7%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43M
- 24h Vol
- $2.9M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+2.0pt51.5%
- No-2.0pt48.5%
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
- 24h Vol
- $75.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $124.3K
- 24h Vol
- $15.8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting41%
- September Meeting+3.5pt30%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI-U index in August
- Above 334.30095%
- Above 334.35095%
- Above 334.450+3.0pt94%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHICPI core in October
- Above 0.1%98%
- Above 0.2%98%
- Above 0.0%66%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
- How high will inflation get this year?
- US shelter CPI in August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - August 2026
- South Africa inflation rate MoM for August
- US electricity price in August
- CPI in August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Core PCE YoY - July 2026?
- Polymarket prices 3.3% at 77% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Core PCE YoY - July 2026 resolve?
- Core PCE YoY - July 2026 is scheduled to resolve on August 26, 2026.
- How is Core PCE YoY - July 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.