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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Fed
  3. Fed rate hike in 2026?
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

3.0% (24h)FedOne-Off6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 52%-0.0%
Market quality

100 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$78.4K

Liquidity

$179.9K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

51.0% / 52.0%

Spread

2.0%

Tight spread
7d Change

+11.0%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Dec 10, 25, 9:11 PMDec 9, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes52%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,120.22+0.65%EthereumETH$1,639.35+0.07%SolanaSOL$64.16-1.36%

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Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.084-0.92%BNBBNB$591.72-0.06%XRPXRP$1.11-2.09%CardanoADA$0.162-2.09%HyperliquidHYPE$54.13-4.96%LitecoinLTC$42.13-2.05%

Related News

Bitcoin traders brace for Federal Reserve decision as hold odds hit 98%Crypto NewsWall Street abandons rate-cut hopes ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMCCrypto NewsStrategy's bitcoin purchase fails to stir BTC priceCoindeskBitcoin braces for inflation shock as CPI puts bulls on edgeCrypto NewsThe Fed, Iran, and Saylor: anatomy of the June crypto crashCrypto NewsMay 2026 US Jobs Report: Upward Revisions Reshape Crypto Fed Rate Cut OutlookBlockchain Reporter

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.