Current implied probability
Yes 70.3%
Market quality
81 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8.1K
Liquidity
$119.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
70.0% / 71.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 10, 25, 9:10 PM UTCDec 9, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fed rate hike by which date?
PolymarketNext Fed rate hike?
KalshiFed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExBank of England rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed rate hike in 2026??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 70% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Fed rate hike in 2026? resolve?
- Fed rate hike in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 9, 2026.
- How is Fed rate hike in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
- Where else is Fed rate hike in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.