Current implied probability
Yes 72%
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$58.3K
Liquidity
$158.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
71.0% / 72.0%
Spread
1.4%
Tight spread7d Change
+18.0%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Dec 10, 25, 9:10 PMDec 9, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes72%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Fed rate hike in 2026?
5mo
72.9%
27.1%
Community forecast40 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
5mo
68.3%
31.7%
Community forecast48 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k29.0%POLYMARKETNoololololololololo11h ago
POLYMARKETNoololololololololo11h ago$12.2k31.4%POLYMARKETNoT313d ago
POLYMARKETNoT313d ago$3.4k62.0%POLYMARKETYesPuntPP4d ago
POLYMARKETYesPuntPP4d ago$1.4k59.9%POLYMARKETYesAhpo4d ago
POLYMARKETYesAhpo4d ago$1.9k39.0%POLYMARKETNotnl4d ago
POLYMARKETNotnl4d ago$1.0k47.0%POLYMARKETNoPanzerkampfwagen6d ago
POLYMARKETNoPanzerkampfwagen6d ago$3.9k52.0%POLYMARKETYesDancewithRisk12d ago
POLYMARKETYesDancewithRisk12d ago$9.7k32.3%POLYMARKETNoT3112d ago
POLYMARKETNoT3112d agoVolume trend
$58.3kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.