KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Hike 25bps (88%)
Resolved: Sep 16, 2026, 6:08 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Hike 25bps
At 7 days out
57%
At 24 hours out
86%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 16, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Fed maintains rate12%
Hike >25bps3%
Hike 25bps88%
Cut 25bps2%
Hike 25bpsWon
Fed maintains rateLost
Cut 25bpsLost
Hike >25bpsLost
Cut >25bpsLost
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "the named outcome" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
