KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityHike 25bps 47%+3.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$9K
Liquidity
$186.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
47.0% / 48.0%
Spread
2.1%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Sep 29, 25, 2:00 PMSep 16, 26, 5:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Hike 25bps47%
Compare venues· Fed maintains rate
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall93% match · auto | High | 50% | — | $171.4K | $500.8K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | High | 53% | — | $9K | $186.4K | 21 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Fed Decision in September?
6.0%1mo
-5.0%50%
+6.0%49%
-0.1%2%
+2 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.9M
24h Vol$171.4K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.0k44.0%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesTheReturnOfDarthMaul4h ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesTheReturnOfDarthMaul4h ago$2.1k96.0%POLYMARKETWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — NoConstancefung5d ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — NoConstancefung5d ago$3.0k61.0%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — YesDancewithRisk5d ago
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — YesDancewithRisk5d ago$1.8k38.0%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesBurgil7d ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — YesBurgil7d ago$1.1k59.8%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — Yeshowesr197012d ago
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? — Yeshowesr197012d ago$96.2k96.2%POLYMARKETWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — NoTheReturnOfDarthMaul13d ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? — NoTheReturnOfDarthMaul13d ago$2.7k65.0%POLYMARKETYesrspa19d ago
POLYMARKETYesrspa19d ago$1.0k97.6%POLYMARKETNochasd19d ago
POLYMARKETNochasd19d agoVolume trend
$9.0kJul 220d of dataJul 21
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If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.