Robinhood (Rothera)Limited verified dataCurrent implied probabilityFed maintains rate 47.6%-2.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
94 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$275K
Liquidity
$7.2M
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 15, 26, 5:00 PM UTCSep 18, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)European Central Bank rate decision in September
KalshiBank of Japan rate decision in September
KalshiCzech National Bank rate decision in September
KalshiEuropean Central Bank interest rate decision in September
FutuurRules
What will be the Fed rate decision in September 2026?
- Contracts resolve based on the change to the federal funds target rate range, measured in basis points, announced by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the September 2026 meeting, as reported by the Source Agency.
- Settlement is determined by the first official rate decision published by the Source Agency for the specified meeting; preliminary estimates or figures from unofficial sources will not be considered for the purpose of contract resolution.
- Only contracts whose stated basis point change matches the FOMC's announced decision will resolve to YES; all others will resolve NO.
- If the FOMC cancels the meeting entirely, the contract for 0 bps (No Change) will resolve YES and all other contracts for that meeting will resolve NO.
- If the Federal Reserve Board delays the release of the rate decision beyond the Expiration Date, or if the release is canceled without a meeting cancellation, the contract will be settled to fair market value as determined by Rothera.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Fed decision in Sep 2026? · Hike 25bps 52%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Fed decision in September? · No change 54%
- Also available on Gemini — Fed decision in September? · Hike 25bps 51%
- Also available on Futuur — Fed interest rate decision — September 2026 · 25 bps increase 50%
- Also available on Polymarket — Fed Decision in September? · 25 bps increase 53%
- Also available on Limitless — Fed Decision in September? · 25 bps increase 53%
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $103.9M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt45.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $38.7M
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)-0.1pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)+0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.3pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No88%
- Yes+1.2pt12%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $38.6K
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 202884%
- Before July 2027+6.0pt84%
- Before 2027+1.0pt74%
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
- $38.5K
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- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
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- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed rate decision in September 2026?
- Robinhood (Rothera) prices Fed maintains rate at 48% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Fed rate decision in September 2026 resolve?
- Fed rate decision in September 2026 is scheduled to resolve on September 18, 2026.
- How is Fed rate decision in September 2026 settled?
- Robinhood (Rothera) settles this market as follows: What will be the Fed rate decision in September 2026?
- Where else is Fed rate decision in September 2026 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Manifold Markets, Gemini, Futuur, Polymarket, Limitless.