Current community forecast
No change 76.8%+1.4ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 29, 26, 6:10 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the September 2026 FOMC meeting (Sep. 15–16, 2026).
- The outcome is determined by the net basis-point change announced in the official March FOMC statement.
- If the Fed changes the rate by an amount not matching a displayed option, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps for resolution (e.g., a 12.5 bps move is treated as 25 bps).
- Resolution Sources:
- The official FOMC statement for the September2026 meeting:
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Gemini — Fed decision in September? · Fed maintains rate 66%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — Fed rate decision in September 2026 · Fed maintains rate 64%
- Also available on Futuur — Fed interest rate decision — September 2026 · No change 73%
- Also available on Kalshi — Fed decision in Sep 2026? · Fed maintains rate 65%
- Also available on Polymarket — Fed Decision in September? · No change 67%
- Also available on Limitless — Fed Decision in September? · No change 68%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed decision in September??
- Manifold Markets prices No change at 77% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Fed decision in September? resolve?
- Fed decision in September? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Fed decision in September? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the September 2026 FOMC meeting (Sep. 15–16, 2026).
- Where else is Fed decision in September? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Gemini, Robinhood (Rothera), Futuur, Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless.
