Current implied probability
October Meeting 69%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8.4K
Liquidity
$96.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
19.7% / 20.0%
Spread
1.5%
Tight spread7d Change
+14.8%
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Mar 31, 26, 9:37 PMOct 29, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
October Meeting69%
Compare venues· October Meeting
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 69% | — | $8.4K | $96.4K | 21 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 37% | — | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Fed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]
4mo
+1.8%38.8%
-5.9%37.2%
-5.0%10.2%
Community forecast10 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
- Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$5.2k22.9%POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — YesAdrink3D2d ago
POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — YesAdrink3D2d ago$1.0k93.7%POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Noyoyobb201811d ago
POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Noyoyobb201811d ago$2.2k56.0%POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? — Noalanhutton12d ago
POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? — Noalanhutton12d ago$6.6k66.8%POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Noyungstalin12d ago
POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Noyungstalin12d ago$1.1k45.0%POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? — YesARUNDEL9913d ago
POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? — YesARUNDEL9913d ago$5.4k86.3%POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Nohfncj20d ago
POLYMARKETFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Nohfncj20d ago$2.2k73.9%POLYMARKETNoyungstalin24d ago
POLYMARKETNoyungstalin24d agoVolume trend
$8.4kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
- Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.