PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityOctober Meeting 43%+4.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.7
Liquidity
$75.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.8% / 0.9%
Spread
12.5%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.5%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Mar 31, 26, 9:39 PMOct 29, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Selected outcome
October Meeting43%
Also available on Kalshi
Next Fed rate hike?
6.0%6mo
-6.0%49%
2%
+3.0%70%
+1 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$15.7K
24h Vol$216.8
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
- Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Active in these topics
Related News
Bitcoin traders brace for Federal Reserve decision as hold odds hit 98%Crypto News
Wall Street abandons rate-cut hopes ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMCCrypto News
Strategy's bitcoin purchase fails to stir BTC priceCoindesk
Bitcoin braces for inflation shock as CPI puts bulls on edgeCrypto News
The Fed, Iran, and Saylor: anatomy of the June crypto crashCrypto News
May 2026 US Jobs Report: Upward Revisions Reshape Crypto Fed Rate Cut OutlookBlockchain ReporterRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
- Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.