Current implied probability
October Meeting 55%+3.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$36.2K
Liquidity
$113.9K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Mar 31, 26, 9:37 PM UTCOct 29, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketNext Fed rate hike?
KalshiFed rate hike in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExBank of England rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
- Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Fed rate hike by...? [Polymarket] · October Meeting 61%
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.7M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt50.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42.6%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed rate hike by which date??
- Polymarket prices October Meeting at 55% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Fed rate hike by which date? resolve?
- Fed rate hike by which date? is scheduled to resolve on October 29, 2026.
- How is Fed rate hike by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting).
- Where else is Fed rate hike by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.