Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.3%
Forecasters
55
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 25, 1:39 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Fed rate hike?
KalshiFed rate hike by which date?
PolymarketFed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExBank of England rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed rate hike in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Fed rate hike in 2026? resolve?
- Fed rate hike in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- Where else is Fed rate hike in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Polymarket.