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Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 92.1%
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$310.3
Liquidity
$19.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingNov 12, 25, 11:04 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
- The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt56.4%
- No change-1.0pt41.6%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $76.9M
- 24h Vol
- $4.1M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt58.6%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt37.5%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+8.0pt55.9%
- Fed maintains rate-9.0pt39%
- Cut 25bps2.4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $873.1K
KALSHIFed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Above 3.50%99%
- Above 3.25%99%
- Above 2.75%99%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $359.3K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.4pt88.1%
- 1 (25 bps)+2.0pt8.9%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.8pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes72%
- No28%
- Total Vol
- $8.4M
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed Decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in September?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed emergency rate cut before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 92% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? resolve?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.