KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$210.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.3% / 4.9%
Spread
1.6 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fed rate cut before 2027?
KalshiFed rate cut by which date?
PolymarketFed emergency rate cut before 2027?
PolymarketECB rate cut in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExFed rate cut by which date?
LimitlessRules
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve
- For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included.
- The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year??
- Kalshi prices No at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? resolve?
- Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.