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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Fed
  3. ECB rate cut in 2026?
ECB rate cut in 2026?

ECB rate cut in 2026?

0.5% (24h)FedOne-OffEuropeCentral Banks6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 14%+0.0%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$1.5K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

13.0% / 15.0%

Spread

15.4%

Wide spread
7d Change

+0.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 23, 25, 10:46 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
  • If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,813.97+1.92%EthereumETH$1,657.75+1.27%SolanaSOL$65.19+1.66%

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Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.40%BNBBNB$601.23+2.47%XRPXRP$1.12+0.49%CardanoADA$0.1675+4.19%HyperliquidHYPE$55.84+0.64%LitecoinLTC$42.65+0.40%

Related News

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
  • If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.