KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 88%
Market quality
87 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$18.1K
Liquidity
$587.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.7% / 11.9%
Spread
1.2 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Feb 26, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fed rate cut by which date?
PolymarketWill the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
KalshiFed emergency rate cut before 2027?
PolymarketECB rate cut in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExFed rate cut by which date?
LimitlessRules
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve
- The market will close and determine on the first 10 AM ET following the occurrence of the event if the event occurs prior to the target date.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.7M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt50.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42.6%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed rate cut before 2027??
- Kalshi prices No at 88% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Fed rate cut before 2027? resolve?
- Fed rate cut before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Fed rate cut before 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.