PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 9:56 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
4.82%100%
5.20%97%
5.25%100%
5.00%100%
4.82%Won
4.85%Won
4.88%Won
4.91%Won
4.94%Won
4.97%Won
5.00%Won
5.05%Won
5.10%Won
5.17%Won
5.15%Won
5.20%Won
5.25%Won
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
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PolymarketHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?
PolymarketHow high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?
PolymarketHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?
PolymarketMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026.
- If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
