Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.1%
Forecasters
81
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Mar 5, 26, 4:42 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExWill the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate target range at any point during 2026.
- It resolves NO if the target range remains unchanged or is lowered throughout the entire year.
- Resolution will be determined by official FOMC announcements and policy decisions published on the Federal Reserve's website.
- The FOMC meets eight times annually, with decisions announced following each meeting.
- The FOMC voted to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% following three rate cuts in 2025.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 69% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? resolve?
- Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Polymarket.