KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 2.75% 99%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$34.2K
Liquidity
$958.8K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 6, 25, 2:30 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 5:55 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?
KalshiFed funds rate after Mar 2027 meeting?
KalshiFed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?
KalshiWill the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.625% at the FOMC meeting ending September 16, 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.875% at the FOMC meeting ending December 9, 2026?
ForecastExRules
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Sep 16, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.7M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt50.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42.6%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting??
- Kalshi prices Above 2.75% at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? resolve?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026.
- How is Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.