Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 24, 22, 5:51 AM UTCMay 24, 32, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
KalshiFed funds rate at end of 2027
KalshiFed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
KalshiWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.625% at the FOMC meeting ending September 16, 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.875% at the FOMC meeting ending December 9, 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 4.125% at the FOMC meeting ending December 9, 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if the value of https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS on May 23 2032 is greater than 4%.
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.1M
- 24h Vol
- $6.2M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+7.0pt63.4%
- Fed maintains rate-11.0pt33.7%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43.3M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt59%
- Fed maintains rate35.4%
- Cut 25bps-1.0pt2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $446.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)+1.4pt6%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.6pt1%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+4.5pt70%
- September Meeting+8.0pt63%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIFed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Above 3.50%99%
- Above 2.75%99%
- Above 3.00%99%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $70.6K
- Fed Decision in October?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed Decision in December?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- Fed decision in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%? resolve?
- Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%? is scheduled to resolve on May 24, 2032.
- How is Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the value of https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS on May 23 2032 is greater than 4%.