Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 26%-2.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.2K
Liquidity
$233K
High liquidityBid / Ask
22.0% / 25.0%
Spread
13.6%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Feb 11, 26, 1:00 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jan 1, 202726%
Large trades
$6.8k95.0%
KALSHIBefore Oct 1, 2026 — No5d ago
KALSHIBefore Oct 1, 2026 — No5d agoVolume trend
$5.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office.
- An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency.
- Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes.
- Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal.
- Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify.