KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
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Current implied probability
Before Jan 31, 2028 67%Leader of 9 outcomes
Before Jan 31, 2028 67%Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$99.5K
High open interestMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Apr 30, 26, 9:00 PM UTCSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before Jan 31, 202867%
Before Oct 1, 202754%
Before Jun 1, 202727%
Before Apr 1, 202716%
Before Jan 1, 20277%
Before Dec 1, 20265%
Before Nov 1, 20264%
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
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Manifold MarketsMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:the Federal ReserveThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- An acknowledgment that Jerome Powell will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of his legally mandated term limit does not resolve to Yes. The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 31, 2028
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jun 1, 2027
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
