Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Fed rate decision in October 2026

• Fed maintains rate+2.0pt90%
• Hike 25bps-1.0pt5.3%
• Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$42.6K

24h Vol

$5.6M

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change94.1%
• 25 bps increase5.9%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$64.3M

KALSHI

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

• Fed maintains rate+1.0pt93.5%
• Hike 25bps-1.0pt5.5%
• Hike >25bps

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in December?

• 25 bps increase74.8%
• No change20.4%
• 50+ bps increase-0.1pt2.9%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

KALSHI

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

• Exactly 0 cuts+0.2pt94.2%
• Exactly 6 cuts+3.5pt0.3%
• Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt

POLYMARKET

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

• Below 4.70%-0.5pt72%
• Below 4.65%-6.5pt63%
• Below 4.60%+7.0pt56%

+10 more outcomes