KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityBefore 2027 13%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 16.0%
Spread
23.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Before 202713%
Also available on Polymarket
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
1.4%6mo
-2.5%21%
-1.4%4%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$16.5K
24h Vol$43.7
POLYMARKETRules
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A "try to fire" includes any of the following:
- The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; The White House officially announces termination; Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; Expressions of dissatisfaction; Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; Unsent letters ordering termination
- This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A "try to fire" includes any of the following:
- The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; The White House officially announces termination; Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; Expressions of dissatisfaction; Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; Unsent letters ordering termination
- This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.