Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
0.7 pts (24h)FedOne-OffPoliticsUS Politics3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$24K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.2% / 12.0%
Spread
5.8 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:CNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCC-SPANofficial transcripts from Congressional hearingsthe White HouseJerome Powellthe Office of Management and Budgetthe Department of Justicethe Federal RegisterThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBS
- A "try to fire" includes **any** of the following:
- - The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; - Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; - Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; - The White House officially announces termination; - Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; - Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
- The following do **NOT** qualify:
- - Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; - Expressions of dissatisfaction; - Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; - Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; - Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; - Unsent letters ordering termination
- This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor??
- Kalshi prices No at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? resolve?
- Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.