Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 12:47 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiPredicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
PolymarketWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsWhich words will Fed Chair Warsh say at his October 28, 2026 FOMC press conference?
Manifold MarketsWarsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
PolymarketRules
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
