KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jan 1, 2030 9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$3.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 22, 26, 3:35 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jan 1, 20272%
Compare venues· Before Jan 1, 2030
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall86% match · auto | Medium | 9% | — | $253.6 | $25.6K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 9% | — | $0 | $3.2K | 15 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
5mo
9%
5%
63 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$5.4K
24h Vol$253.6
POLYMARKETRules
If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$25Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.