KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2031 75%-7.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$370.3
Liquidity
$5.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 5:00 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
KalshiWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWarsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
PolymarketRules
If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt99%
- 1 (25 bps)-1.1pt1%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt0%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.1M
- 24h Vol
- $84.1K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase54.5%
- No change43.6%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Fed maintains rate46.8%
- Hike 25bps-4.0pt45.8%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt3.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.8K
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate43.3%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+3.0pt86.1%
- No-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $70.3K
- 24h Vol
- $24.8K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase67.3%
- No change30.7%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed Rate Decision (Jan 2027)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2031 at 75% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? resolve?
- Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.