KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2031 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2031 78.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2031 78.5%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$5.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2031Spread
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Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jul 22, 26, 3:35 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2031
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will Kevin Warsh say during his December press conference?
KalshiWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2031
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Warsh out as Fed Chair by…? · June 30, 2027 6%
